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Thursday, March 13, 2014

AN EARLY PRIMER FOR THE 2014 NBA DRAFT

The 2014 NBA Draft will be held on June 26th.  Teams are still fighting for both playoff position & lottery position with about 5 weeks left in the regular season.  The Draft Lottery will be held on May 20th to see who will get first crack at the much hyped class of prospects.  Below is a snapshot of where things stand as of today, about 3 and 1/2 months from draft day.  I'll be doing updates periodically to see how the draft order is shaping up, which picks are likely to move and which prospects are rising and falling.

1ST ROUND PICKS CHANGING HANDS
  • ATLANTA has right to swap picks with BROOKLYN**
  • BOSTON receives the lesser of the ATLANTA/BROOKLYN picks
  • BOSTON receives a top 14 protected pick from PHILADELPHIA**
  • CHARLOTTE receives a top 8 protected pick from DETROIT
  • CHICAGO receives a top 10 protected pick from CHARLOTTE
  • CHICAGO receives a top 12 protected pick from SACRAMENTO**
  • DENVER receives an unprotected pick from NEW YORK
  • OKLAHOMA CITY receives a top 20 protected pick from DALLAS
  • ORLANDO receives the lesser of the DENVER/NEW YORK picks
  • PHILADELPHIA receives a top 5 protected pick from NEW ORLEANS
  • PHOENIX receives a top 14 protected pick from INDIANA
  • PHOENIX receives a top 13 protected pick from MINNESOTA**
  • PHOENIX receives a top 12 protected pick from WASHINGTON
  • UTAH recieves an unprotected pick from GOLDEN STATE
** - denotes pick that currently would not switch hands due to protection

CURRENT FIRST ROUND DRAFT ORDER

LOTTERY PICKS
  • 01 - MILWAUKEE
  • 02 - PHILADELPHIA
  • 03 - ORLANDO
  • 04 - BOSTON
  • 05 - UTAH
  • 06 - L.A. LAKERS
  • 07 - SACRAMENTO
  • 08 - CLEVELAND
  • 09 - CHARLOTTE (from DETROIT)
  • 10 - DENVER (from NEW YORK)
  • 11 - PHILADELPHIA (from NEW ORLEANS)
  • 12 - ORLANDO (from DENVER)
  • 13 - MINNESOTA
  • 14 - PHOENIX
PLAYOFF TEAM PICKS
  • 15 - ATLANTA
  • 16 - CHICAGO (from CHARLOTTE)
  • 17 - PHOENIX (from WASHINGTON)
  • 18 - BOSTON (from BROOKLYN)
  • 19 - CHICAGO
  • 20 - TORONTO
  • 21 - OKLAHOMA CITY (from DALLAS)
  • 22 - MEMPHIS
  • 23 - UTAH (from GOLDEN STATE)
  • 24 - CHARLOTTE (from PORTLAND)
  • 25 - HOUSTON
  • 26 - L.A. CLIPPERS
  • 27 - MIAMI
  • 28 - PHOENIX (from INDIANA)
  • 29 - OKLAHOMA CITY
  • 30 - SAN ANTONIO

POTENTIAL PRE-LOTTERY DRAFT PICK MOVEMENT
  • PICKS 1 & 2 - Milwaukee currently has a 2-game lead over Philadelphia for the best odds at the top pick in the draft.  Philly has lost 18 straight while the Bucks have won 3 of their last 10.  Both teams have 18 games remaining with the Sixers having one extra home game but also playing one more current playoff team.
  • PICK NO. 3 - Orlando looks pretty locked into this slot with being 3 games ahead of Philly while being 3.5 games behind Boston & Utah
  • PICKS 4-7 - This looks to be a toss up between Boston, Utah, the Lakers & Sacramento.  All are within one game of each other.  The Lakers have 18 games remaining with the other 3 teams having 17 to go.  Boston has the most road games left at 10 but also have the easiest strength of schedule the rest of the way.  The Lakers have the hardest remaining schedule, just a nod ahead of Sacramento.
  • PICKS 8-12 - This is likely a battle between New Orleans, Denver and 3 Eastern Conference teams that are still fighting for a playoff spot, Cleveland, Detroit & New York.  The Pelicans currently sit 1.5 games ahead of Cleveland & Detroit for this spot but you would think they have the edge with nothing more to play for this year except trying to move up and keep their top 5 protected pick from making its way to Philly.  Denver has the hardest remaining strength of schedule in the entire league moving forward so it wouldn't be a surprise to see them move up by the end of the season.  Atlanta would be the other team with a chance to land in this group if they're leapfrogged by one of the aforementioned teams for the 8th seed in the East.
  • PICK NO. 13 - This pick will belong to Minnesota which would work out perfect and mean they would keep their pick instead of sending it to Phoenix.  The Wolves are 4.5 games up on New Orleans and 3.5 games behind Phoenix with 19 left to play.
  • PICK NO. 14 - It's sadly looking more and more like Phoenix will be in this spot.  The Suns are 2 games behind both Memphis & Dallas at this point and 12 of their remaining 18 games come on the road.  They have also lost 3 straight and 7 of their last 10.  Dallas will have 10 of their last 16 games at home, while Memphis gets 11 of their last 18 on the road.  The Grizzlies have won 4 straight & 7 of 10 and appear to have finally hit their stride after dealing with injuries all year.  

PROSPECT RANGES

The information below is the current look at averaging out prospect ranks from the top sites available.  Right now, I'm only using three recently updated & well respected sites though more will be added into the mix as the draft gets closer.  The current sites are Jonathan Givony's DraftExpressChad Ford of ESPN and Kris Habbas' NBA Draft Insider.  I'll also be incorporating Aran Smith's NBAdraft.net once his big board is updated and potentially a few others that I feel are on top of things.

CONSENSUS TOP 5 PICKS

Players who are projected as top 5 picks in all 3 rankings.
  • 01. JOEL EMBIID, C, 7-0/240, Kansas
  • 02. ANDREW WIGGINS, G/F, 6-8/200, Kansas
  • 03. JABARI PARKER, F, 6-8/240, Duke
  • 04. JULIUS RANDLE, PF, 6-9/250, Kentucky
  • 05. DANTE EXUM, G, 6-6/190, Australia Institute of Sport

CONSENSUS LOTTERY PICKS

Players who are projected as lottery picks in all 3 rankings.
  • 06. MARCUS SMART, G, 6-4/200, Oklahoma State
  • 07. AARON GORDON, F, 6-9/210, Arizona
  • 08. NOAH VONLEH, PF, 6-10/240, Indiana
  • 09. DARIO SARIC, SF, 6-10/225, Cibona (Croatia)

CONSENSUS FIRST ROUND PICKS

Players who are projected as first round picks in all 3 rankings.
  • 10. GARY HARRIS, SG, 6-4/210, Michigan State
  • 11. RODNEY HOOD, SF, 6-8/185, Duke
  • 12. TYLER ENNIS, PG, 6-2/180, Syracuse
  • 13. JERAMI GRANT, SF, 6-8/205, Syracuse
  • 14. JAMES YOUNG, SF, 6-7/200, Kentucky
  • 15. DOUG MCDERMOTT, PF, 6-8/225, Creighton
  • 16. WILLIE CAULEY-STEIN, C, 7-0/245, Kentucky
  • 17. CLINT CAPELA, PF, 6-10/210, Chalon (France)
  • 18. NIK STAUSKAS, SG, 6-6/205, Michigan
  • 19. SAM DEKKER, SF, 6-7/200, Wisconsin
  • 20. K.J. MCDANIELS, SF, 6-6/200, Clemson
  • 22. ADREIAN PAYNE, PF, 6-9/215, Michigan State
  • 23. RONDAE HOLLIS-JEFFERSON, SF, 6-7/215, Arizona
  • 26. MARIO HEZONJA, SG, 6-6/200, Barcelona (Spain)

LIKELY FIRST ROUND PICKS

Players who are projected as first round picks in 2 of the 3 rankings.
  • 21. ZACH LAVINE, G, 6-5/180, UCLA
  • 24. MONTREZL HARRELL, F/C, 6-8/230, Louisville
  • 25. WAYNE SELDEN, G/F, 6-5/220, Kansas
  • 27. CHRIS WALKER, SF, 6-9/195, Florida
  • 28. P.J. HAIRSTON, G/F, 6-5/225, Texas Legends (D-League)
  • 30. JUSUF NURKIC, C, 6-11/280, Cedevita (Croatia)

OTHER POTENTIAL FIRST ROUND PICKS

Players who are projected as first round picks in 1 of the 3 rankings.
  • 29. KYLE ANDERSON, SF, 6-8/240, UCLA
  • 31. JORDAN CLARKSON, SG, 6-5/195, Missouri
  • 34. T.J. WARREN, SF, 6-8/230, North Carolina State
  • 36. ANDREW HARRISON, PG, 6-5/205, Kentucky
  • 38. AARON HARRISON, SG, 6-5/210, Kentucky
  • 56. JABARI BIRD, SG, 6-6/190, California

CONSENSUS SECOND ROUND PICKS

Players who are projected as second round picks in all 3 rankings.
  • 32. JAHII CARSON, PG, 5-11/165, Arizona State
  • 33. GLENN ROBINSON III, SF, 6-6/210, Michigan
  • 35. C.J. WILCOX, SG, 6-5/190, Washington
  • 37. VASILIJE MICIC, PG, 6-5/185, Mega Vizura (Serbia)
  • 39. SEMAJ CHRISTON, PG, 6-3/185, Xavier
  • 40. SPENCER DINWIDDIE, SG, 6-6/200, Colorado
  • 41. JORDAN ADAMS, SG, 6-5/220, UCLA
  • 42. ELFRID PAYTON, PG, 6-3/170, Louisiana-Lafayette

LIKELY SECOND ROUND PICKS

Players who are projected as second round picks in 2 of the 3 rankings.
  • 43. ISAIAH AUSTIN, C, 7-1/220, Baylor
  • 44. ALEX POYTHRESS, F, 6-8/240, Kentucky
  • 45. NICK JOHNSON, SG, 6-3/200, Arizona
  • 46. KALEB TARCZEWSKI, C, 7-0/230, Arizona
  • 47. JAMES MCADOO, PF, 6-9/225, North Carolina
  • 48. RUSS SMITH, PG, 6-0/160, Louisville

POTENTIAL FAST RISERS

Players who are projected as high second round picks in 2 of the rankings but not are not ranked at all in the 3rd set of rankings.  These players should shoot up if and when they become ranked in that 3rd or when more site rankings are added in the future.
  • 57. BOGDAN BOGDANOVIC, SG, 6-5/205, Partizan (Serbia)
  • 58. MITCH MCGARY, C, 6-10/265, Michigan
  • 59. DEONTE BURTON, PG, 6-1/185, Nevada

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